The Virginia Political Wire's primary predictions were way off. Really it was more of a wish list than true prognostication. However, we are not aware of anyone who completely got it right...there were of course big surprises. There was one surprise in our list...we hit the 74th on the nose...Morrissey over Miles, then Jackson, then Lambert, and then Goodall. We did get seven of the eight Democratic primaries right...I guess that's because we have been involved in Democratic Politics for years. On the Republican side we were only right on 3 out of 8, and that's bad....we must not know diddly about the right wingers...but who does????

PRIMARY PREDICTIONS 2007

House 83rd- Carolyn Weems over Chris Stolle
Senate 1- Marty Williams Romps Pat Stall
Senate 24- Scott Sayre d. Emmett Hanger
Senate 27- Jill Holtzman V. in a landslide over Mark Tate
Senate 22- Brandon Bell handily over Ralph Smith
Senate 12 A victory for Walter Stosch over Blackburn
Senate 13- Fred Quayle pummels his opponent
House 72- Jimmy Wheat rides Stosch to defeat Massie

House 79 Henry Light squeaks by Johnny Joannou
House 3- Danny Bowling defeats McGlothlin
House 34- Margi Vandrehye d. Rip Sullivan
Senate 9- Don McEachin in a landslide over Benny Lambert
Senate 39- Barker over Galligan
House 74- Fightin Joe Morrisey d. Floyd Miles, then Jackson, then Lambert &Goodall
Senate 13- Heretick wins big over Bouchard

Credible Challenger Emerging in the 61st District: Mecklenburg, Lunenburg, Nottoway, Amelia, and Brunswick Counties: The district was represented by Lew Parker from 1972-1993, Frank Ruff from 1993-2000, and Tommy Wright since 2001. This is a marginally Republican District that supported Mark Warner over Mark Earley 9.258-9,222
DEVELOPING...........................

RETIREMENT WATCH...Casualty List
Announcements so far:
Del. Melanie Rapp
Del. Leo Wardrup
Del. Donald McEachin- running for Senate
Del. Robert Hurt- running for Senate
Del. Jack Reid
Del. Allen Dudley
Del. Vince Callahan
Del. Michele McQuigg
Sen. Russ Potts
Sen. John Chichester
Sen. Charles Hawkins
5% Retiring so far and all are Republicans

Legislators to watch...reason why
Del. Robert Hurt, running for Senate if Hawkins retires UPDATE- Running for Senate
Del, Jack Reid, gun shy, UPDATE RETIRING
Del. Dave Marsden, constant needling from Not Larry Sabato
Del. Allen Dudley, bruising re-election campaign UPDATE- RETIRING
Del. Tom Gear, on-going financial troubles
Del. Frank Hall, lost leadership position
Del. Phil Hamilton, time to retire, difficult re-election
Del. Frank Hargrove, age & controversial comments
Del. Don McEachin, running for senate- UPDATE- Running for Senate
Del. Harry Purkey, age
Del. Lacy Putney, age
Del. Jim Scott, age
Del. Bob Tata, age
Del. Leo Wardrup, age- health UPDATE- RETIRING
Del. John Welch, financial woes, difficult re-election
Sen. John Chichester, age- difficult primary challenge UPDATE- RETIRING
Sen. Chuck Colgan age UPDATE- He's running again
Sen. Charles Hawkins, time to retire UPDATE- RETIRING
Sen. Benny Lambert, difficult primary challenge
Sen. Fred Quayle, age-health
Sen. Frank Ruff, run for const. office, retire-collect pension (McQuigg)
Sen. Patsy Ticer, age

What will be the major Issue in 2007? Are we done with Transportation?

Wardrup RETIRES (maybe)
The most controversial member of the Virginia Beach Delegation is retiring after 15 years. Democrats have strong chance at winning this seat in November with former commanding officer of the Norfolk Naval Station Joe Bouchard

The 74th House District Democratic Primary- tantamount to election- OPEN Don McEachin is challenging Sen. Benny Lambert. The race seems to be a free for all and will be incredibly interesting
People interested in McEachin's seat so far:

• Former Richmond City Councilwomen Jackie Jackson who was defeated in the last election by Reva Trammell
• - Benny Lambert's son, David Lambert
• - Former Commonwealth's Attorney, Joe Morrissey, a colorful character
• - Former Delegate Floyd Miles, lost to McEachin in the 05 Primary

The district includes Charles City County and parts of Richmond, Hopewell and Henrico and Prince George counties.

Del. Robert Hurt of Chatham has announced he will be running for the Senate- Charles Hawkins seat. Hurt was elected in 2001. He is the favorite to win the district. Now his HD seat is OPEN including Part of Pittsylvania County, Henry County and Martinsville....that one could get interesting if the Democrats nominate the right candidate

32 Year Delegate Paul Councill Died Yesterday of a heart attack at age 85. He served the House of Delegates in Southampton, Isle of Wight, Franklin, Greesnnsville/Emporia, Sussex, Surry, Brunswick, and Lunenburg until his retirement in 2005.

A Difficult Day for the Edwards Family

John & Elizabeth Edwards announced today that she has incurable breast cancer. There is no way to tell how long she will survive. The hope is she will live productively for many years.

“You can go cower in the corner and hide or you can go out there and stand up for what you believe in," John Edwards said. "We have no intentions of cowering in the corner."

HAWKINS RETIRES

Today the Roanoke Times is reporting that Senator Charlie Hawkins is retiring. He was first elected to the House of Delegates in 1981 and then to the Senate in 1991. The frontrunner for his seat is Delegate Robert Hurt- R-Chatham who was elected in 2001. This race will be worth watching if Democrats nominate a strong candidate. The 19th District= Danville, Pittsylvania, Franklin County, and Campbell (Part)

The silence is deafening in the 75th
In 2005, the seat was vacated by the retirement 30 year incumbent Paul Councill. Roslyn Tyler defeated 4 Democrats in the June primary. In the General Election she defeated little known Republican- Carson Saunders by only 232 votes out of 18,234 cast. Also, her campaign outspent Saunders 2-1. This cycle, rumors have been flying setting up several scenarios...That she will be primaried...that the Republicans will not nominate anyone and and an independent will run...or that Rupublicans will run a candidate and spend heavily. The District is roughly 50% white and 50% African American. It is considered a Democratic rural stronghold but the political dynamics fall largely along racial lines. The district voted Warner, Kerry, Kaine, Byrne, Deeds, Webb yet Tyler only eked out a 232 vote victory. This race will be interesting in the coming months. The 75th District= Southampton County(most), City of Franklin (most), Isle of Wight County (one precinct), City of Emporia, Greensville County, Sussex County, Brunswick County (most), and Lunenburg County (2 precincts).

RETIREMENT WATCH

Richmond sources are hinting that Henrico Delagate JACK REID is retiring. The outspoken legislator has represented the The 72nd District as a conservative Republican since 1990.

Albert Pollard is IN! and will run for the Northern Neck based Senate District. The seat is being vacated by John Chichester

BIG NEWS IN THE 62nd!

Riley Ingram is going to be challenged from the right and has even suggested he will run as an independent. His possible opponent is Joe Leming www.joeleming.com Chairman of the Prince George County Board of Supervisors. The 62nd District (Part of Prince George, Hopewell, Chesterfield, and Henrico) is heavily Republican, so the race will most likely be fought on the right. Ingram supported Mark Warner's budget and has staked out many sensible positions...which has infuriated the conservative base. Ingram, a well known real estate broker, was elected in 1992 over Incumbent Democrat Beasley Jones (deceased). This race will be a barnburner and will be one of the hottest intra-party contests in the state if it materializes.

UPDATE: No one who runs in the primary can file as an independent

DRAFT ALBERT POLLARD

Pollard is a Democrat who would win the seat vacated by the retirement of John Chichester in the Stafford to Norther Neck based district.

Virginia Statesman Retires

John Chichester was named 2004 "public official of the year" by Governing magazine. Today, March 12th he announced his retirement. He was elected in 1978. It becoming increasingly sad that the best Republican legislators in Virginia are retiring this year...Chichester, Potts, Callahan. The void left is huge and in many cases will be filled with inexperienced "the world is flat" Republicans.

Important Dates to Remember
2007 House and Senate nominations

Primary- Filing deadline April 13th
Shad Planking April 18th
Primary held June 12th
If no primary is held- Caucus must be held by 7:00 pm June 12

8 hours after this site announced a "Retirement Watch"

ALLEN DUDLEY will retire!!!!

Eric Ferguson starts out with the edge but everything will depend on who the Republicans nominate

Jo Ann Davis R-VA 1st District

A re-occurence of breast cancer- second time in two years. Our prayers are with the hard working congressman from Virginia's 1st district. For health reasons we have to put her on the Retirement Watch for 08